Anthony Guiliano Frank Costanzo February 12th 2025
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Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau |
Washington thought Canada would hesitate. They assumed negotiations, slow diplomacy, maybe even concessions. Instead, Canada did the unthinkable—cutting a direct path to China, bypassing the US entirely. For years, the US had a chokehold on Canada’s energy exports. Almost every drop of crude flowed south. Now? That grip is slipping.
New tariffs. Rising tensions. And a pipeline that just changed the rules forever.
This isn’t just about oil. It’s about control. And for the first time in decades, Canada is making its own rules.
The Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion now pumps 890,000 barrels per day straight to the Pacific, giving Canada access to global markets. China? The biggest winner. Canada? Finally breaking free. And the US? Losing leverage by the day. With the global energy landscape shifting, Canada is playing smart—diversifying its buyers to avoid dependence on a single market. A 10% tariff on Canadian oil was the final straw. Washington assumed Canada would absorb the costs. Instead? Canada turned east. Why beg the US to buy when China is eager to secure long-term deals? Canada saw an opportunity. And they took it. Canada had watched as other energy exporters—like Russia and Saudi Arabia—secured long-term energy partnerships with China. Now, Canada is doing the same.
-FX
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